Method
How BiteForecast calculates midge risk
BiteForecast uses a small set of weather and seasonal signals to create a practical nuisance estimate for Scottish midges. The goal is to help with real trip planning, not to pretend every loch edge or campsite can be modelled perfectly.
The short version
The calculator gives the most weight to the conditions that tend to matter most in practice: wind, temperature, humidity, cloud cover, and time of day or season.
It is designed to answer a user-friendly question: how likely is this stop or trip window to feel manageable, annoying, or unpleasant for a typical visitor?
Wind speed
Moving air is the strongest suppressor in the model. When the air is breezy, midges usually struggle more than they do in calm sheltered spots.
Temperature
Temperature affects how active conditions are likely to feel, but it is not treated on its own. Warm air without shelter and humidity does not automatically mean a bad midge experience.
Humidity
Mild, humid conditions usually make nuisance more likely, especially around lochs, burns, boggy ground, woodland edges, and other sheltered damp areas.
Cloud cover
Cloudier, softer-light conditions can help nuisance build when other signals already favour activity. It is a supporting input rather than the main driver, but it helps separate sharper midday suppression from calmer, greyer windows.
Time of day and season
Evening and dusk matter because nuisance often becomes more noticeable as the air settles. Season matters too, because the same weather pattern does not feel identical in early spring, peak summer, or the tail end of the season.
The five-point scale
| Score | Band | What it usually means |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Low | Usually manageable unless you stop in a very sheltered damp pocket. |
| 2 | Guarded | Could get annoying if the air drops still, especially later in the day. |
| 3 | Moderate | Expect nuisance in sheltered stops and calmer evening windows. |
| 4 | High | Sheltered stops are likely to be uncomfortable without protection. |
| 5 | Very High | Strong nuisance likely, change timing, location, or kit if you can. |
Planning pages versus live pages
Destination guides on BiteForecast are planning pages. They summarise recurring seasonal patterns, terrain effects, and typical better or worse windows for a place.
The live calculator is different. It uses current or forecast weather data to produce a more immediate day-of estimate for a specific location and time window.
Important limits
No public model can fully capture every sheltered verge, campsite edge, woodland pocket, or lochside hollow. Real conditions can change fast and can differ sharply over short distances.
BiteForecast is best used as a practical decision aid, alongside your own judgement about terrain, exposure, recent rainfall, and how long you expect to stop outdoors.
What happens when live weather data is missing
If a live feed is unavailable, BiteForecast falls back to a seasonal estimate for that place and time of year. It does not pretend missing live data is real-time certainty.
That fallback is intentionally more conservative and should be treated as planning guidance rather than a precise current reading.